Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Factor structure of early smoking experiences and associations with smoking behavior: valence or sensitivity model?

The Early Smoking Experience (ESE) questionnaire is the most widely used questionnaire to assess initial subjective experiences of cigarette smoking. However, its factor structure is not clearly defined and can be perceived from two main standpoints: valence, or positive and negative experiences, and sensitivity to nicotine. This article explores the ESE's factor structure and determines which standpoint was more relevant. It compares two groups of young Swiss men (German- and French-speaking). We examined baseline data on 3,368 tobacco users from a representative sample in the ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). ESE, continued tobacco use, weekly smoking and nicotine dependence were assessed. Exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) and structural equation modeling (SEM) were performed. ESEM clearly distinguished positive experiences from negative experiences, but negative experiences were divided in experiences related to dizziness and experiences related to irritations. SEM underlined the reinforcing effects of positive experiences, but also of experiences related to dizziness on nicotine dependence and weekly smoking. The best ESE structure for predictive accuracy of experiences on smoking behavior was a compromise between the valence and sensitivity standpoints, which showed clinical relevance.

Octopus Standard Automated Perimetry, Pulsar Perimetry, Moorfields Motion Displacement Test and Heidelberg Retinal Tomography in Glaucoma Detection - A Comparison of Diagnostic Accuracy

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy of 4 clinical instruments in the detection of glaucomatous damage. Methods: 102 eyes of 55 test subjects (Age mean = 66.5yrs, range = [39; 89]) underwent Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRTIII), (disc area<2.43); and standard automated perimetry (SAP) using Octopus (Dynamic); Pulsar (TOP); and Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) (ESTA strategy). Eyes were separated into three groups 1) Healthy (H): IOP<21mmHg and healthy discs (clinical examination), 39 subjects, 78 eyes; 2) Glaucoma suspect (GS): Suspicious discs (clinical examination), 12 subjects, 15 eyes; 3) Glaucoma (G): progressive structural or functional loss, 14 subjects, 20 eyes. Clinical diagnostic precision was examined using the cut-off associated with the p<5% normative limit of MD (Octopus/Pulsar), PTD (MDT) and MRA (HRT) analysis. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were calculated for each instrument. Results: See table Conclusions: Despite the advantage of defining glaucoma suspects using clinical optic disc examination, the HRT did not yield significantly higher accuracy than functional measures. HRT, MDT and Octopus SAP yielded higher accuracy than Pulsar perimetry, although results did not reach statistical significance. Further studies are required to investigate the structure-function correlations between these instruments.

Prognostic value of sentinel node biopsy in 327 prospective melanoma patients from a single institution

AIM: To confirm the accuracy of sentinel node biopsy (SNB) procedure and its morbidity, and to investigate predictive factors for SN status and prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between October 1997 and December 2004, 327 consecutive patients in one centre with clinically node-negative primary skin melanoma underwent an SNB by the triple technique, i.e. lymphoscintigraphy, blue-dye and gamma-probe. Multivariate logistic regression analyses as well as the Kaplan-Meier were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent of the patients had at least one metastatic SN, which was significantly associated with Breslow thickness (p<0.001). The success rate of SNB was 99.1% and its morbidity was 7.6%. With a median follow-up of 33 months, the 5-year DFS/DSS were 43%/49% for patients with positive SN and 83.5%/87.4% for patients with negative SN, respectively. The false-negative rate of SNB was 8.6% and sensitivity 91.4%. On multivariate analysis, DFS was significantly worsened by Breslow thickness (RR=5.6, p<0.001), positive SN (RR=5.0, p<0.001) and male sex (RR=2.9, p=0.001). The presence of a metastatic SN (RR=8.4, p<0.001), male sex (RR=6.1, p<0.001), Breslow thickness (RR=3.2, p=0.013) and ulceration (RR=2.6, p=0.015) were significantly associated with a poorer DSS. CONCLUSION: SNB is a reliable procedure with high sensitivity (91.4%) and low morbidity. Breslow thickness was the only statistically significant parameter predictive of SN status. DFS was worsened in decreasing order by Breslow thickness, metastatic SN and male gender. Similarly DSS was significantly worsened by a metastatic SN, male gender, Breslow thickness and ulceration. These data reinforce the SN status as a powerful staging procedure

Impaired left ventricular function as a predictive factor for mid-term survival in octogenarians after primary coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: The impact of preoperative impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) in octogenarians following coronary bypass surgery on short-term survival was evaluated in this study. METHODS: A total of 147 octogenarians (mean age 82.1 ± 1.9 years) with coronary artery diseases underwent elective coronary artery bypass graft between January 2000 and December 2009. Patients were stratified into: Group I (n = 59) with EF >50%, Group II (n = 59) with 50% > EF >30% and in Group III (n = 29) with 30% > EF. RESULTS: There was no difference among the three groups regarding incidence of COPD, renal failure, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and preoperative cerebrovascular events. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was the sole independent predictive factor for in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR), 18.1); this was 8.5% in Group I, 15.3% in Group II and 10.3% in Group III. Independent predictive factors for mortality during follow up were: decrease of EF during follow-up for more that 5% (OR, 5.2), usage of left internal mammary artery as free graft (OR, 18.1), and EF in follow-up lower than 40% (OR, 4.8). CONCLUSIONS: The results herein suggest acceptable in-hospital as well short-term mortality in octogenarians with impaired EF following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and are comparable to recent literature where the mortality of younger patients was up to 15% and short-term mortality up to 40%, respectively. Accordingly, we can also state that in an octogenarian cohort with impaired EF, CABG is a viable treatment with acceptable mortality.

Prediction of multiple infections after severe burn trauma: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop predictive models for early triage of burn patients based on hypersusceptibility to repeated infections. BACKGROUND: Infection remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity after severe trauma, demanding new strategies to combat infections. Models for infection prediction are lacking. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 459 burn patients (≥16 years old) with 20% or more total body surface area burns recruited from 6 US burn centers. We compared blood transcriptomes with a 180-hour cutoff on the injury-to-transcriptome interval of 47 patients (≤1 infection episode) to those of 66 hypersusceptible patients [multiple (≥2) infection episodes (MIE)]. We used LASSO regression to select biomarkers and multivariate logistic regression to built models, accuracy of which were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Three predictive models were developed using covariates of (1) clinical characteristics; (2) expression profiles of 14 genomic probes; (3) combining (1) and (2). The genomic and clinical models were highly predictive of MIE status [AUROCGenomic = 0.946 (95% CI: 0.906-0.986); AUROCClinical = 0.864 (CI: 0.794-0.933); AUROCGenomic/AUROCClinical P = 0.044]. Combined model has an increased AUROCCombined of 0.967 (CI: 0.940-0.993) compared with the individual models (AUROCCombined/AUROCClinical P = 0.0069). Hypersusceptible patients show early alterations in immune-related signaling pathways, epigenetic modulation, and chromatin remodeling. CONCLUSIONS: Early triage of burn patients more susceptible to infections can be made using clinical characteristics and/or genomic signatures. Genomic signature suggests new insights into the pathophysiology of hypersusceptibility to infection may lead to novel potential therapeutic or prophylactic targets.